EU Referendum

Like many others over the years I have blamed the EU for many dumb things – for example the excesses of wine lakes and food mountains, the apparent lining of French coffers due to the Common Agricultural Policy etc, dismay over the huge, virtually undebated, expansion in 2004 and even for closed lanes at the local swimming pool. And of course the large amount of immigration in the past 10 years.

Set against this is the fact that geographically we are part of Europe, Europe has been a stable and peaceful entity since the second world war and we have a generally good relationship with most Europeans who, I believe, regard us as their friends and allies.

I’m pessimistic that the older generation is about to seriously impoverish our children’s future out of a misplaced sense of grievance so I’d like at least to record my thoughts at this time.

So what are my arguments for remaining in the EU?

Risk

This is not my reason for staying but if you are undecided it seems obvious.

While the Brexiters would have you believe this is an equal choice it is not so. We can always leave if it becomes obvious we should do so. On the other hand if we do leave we can never go back – at the very least we wouldn’t have any more control than Turkey has today. So if, for example, unlike me, you think we probably should leave but, like me, you are worried that the Brexiters have no plan, you can wait.

In a nutshell leaving carries a high risk so at a rational level one would need a good reason to leave while voting to remain is low risk and keeps one’s options open.

Why stay?

For me it’s about sticking with our friends, being in the mainstream of culture and science and working with others on shared solutions. My experience of EU nationals at a personal level has always been positive. They bring education, culture, skills and enthusiasm. Personally I don’t recognise the grasping rapists Nigel Farage would have us believe in.

Today our institutions can work across the EU without having to negotiate their legitimacy while if we leave we will have to fight to avoid being left in the slow lane. It’s also about security since I think along with economic weakness will come instability and compromise on sovereignty and political independence as the likes of China, India and Russia exact a price for their investment. We’ve already had a taste of this with the supine pose George Osborne struck when trying to position China as a kind of post-EU ally (before he was slapped down by his new Chinese bosses and told to remain) and the way Tata was able to hold the UK government to ransom over its steel investments.

Economy

Obviously this a central part of what will change if we leave. Brexiters claim we are strong enough to withstand leaving because we are claimed to be the world’s 5’th largest economy while at the same time claiming our economy will boom outside the EU.

Of course nobody knows exactly what the impact will be but to me the risks are all on the side of leaving. When the Japanese invested in the UK car industry during the Thatcher era my recollection is that this was soley to beat EU quotas, there would have been no business case if we had been outside. Similarly today it seems many businesses are here because the UK is in the EU. Even China has stated a preference for us to stay.

Unfortunately apart from the fantasy claim by Michael Gove that the EU would rush to offer us a better trade deal without any of the current obligations such paying or accepting free movement the Brexit side don’t seem to have any plan beyond ‘trading with everyone else’. As I said above I fear this will result in many compromises. Britain is a peculiarly weak position to go it alone thanks to successive governments being so relaxed about our major industries and institutions being handed over to foreign ownership making self-determination difficult.

While our economy is dangerously skewed towards ‘financial services’ where connectivity, communication and regulatory frameworks are key we risk losing unfettered access to EU financial markets and a consequent migration of institutions to Frankfurt as we lose automatic rights to be ‘inside’ Europe.

The UK, unlike the USA for example, must trade to survive while other countries don’t need to trade with us and will only do so when it’s to their advantage. In our weakened state after leaving the EU with higher tariffs to Europe we will be at a disadvantage and have to lower wages and relax standards.

Cut off from much European technological cooperation and from free access to European financial markets we will need to form new relationships but it’s unclear who will sign up to those without extracting something in return. The problem for us would be that what most non-EU partners value most is access to the EU market which we would no longer be able to offer.

Immigration

This still seems to be the heart of the issue people have with the EU. Of course being a citizen of an EU country, while giving you the right to live and work in the UK does not grant you UK citizenship – see this page  for some discussion of this and related matters if we leave. On the other, for example, hand EU citizens working in the UK do build up UK pension rights up UK pension rights.

Because opposition to immigration is often (and sometimes correctly) perceived as racially motivated the Brexit campaign have been reluctant to make this their central theme, much to Ukip’s annoyance. However, this still seems like the main argument for leaving, though not so much has a reason for postponing until the Brexiters come up with a credible plan.

While leaving the EU would appear to be a good way to reduce immigration there could be difficulties. The first difficulty is that it seems like any agreement to reconstitute our trading relationship with the EU would come with a free movement of labour requirement. Secondly, given that there is just as much immigration from non-EU countries it seems like there is an appetite among UK (mainly foreign owned) employers for non-UK workers.

The campaigns

Obviously voting to leave or remain does not mean endorsing the associated campaign or its leaders. However, for me the uniformly extreme right-wing pedigree of the Leave campaign leaders does cause me concern.

Boris Johnson has a long record of making up false stories about the EU and publishing them in the Daily Telegraph. Nigel Lawson has devoted decades to spreading misinformation about climate change despite being corrected many times by bodies such as the Royal Society. Michael Gove pretty much wrecked the UK education system while Chris Grayling had a disastrous tenure at the justice department and Ian Duncan Smith proved completely incompetent at managing the project to introduce Universal Credit while also presiding over the nasty bedroom tax. Then you have the lesser-Thatcherites like John Redwood who, in spite of planning Brexit for the last 25 years appear to be completely clueless about any kind of plan.

What appears to be a common trait of these right-wing Brexiters -along with Ukip – is their anti-science stance on climate change – making it hard to trust their judgement on less-clearcut issues such as Brexit.

Of course there’s not a lot to like about George Osborne or Jeremy Hunt but I believe the likes of John Major and Michael Heseltine have a strong record for integrity.

TTIP

This is the trade treaty being negotiated by the EU with the USA. Much of the negotiation is being  carried out in secret and much of the text is being dictated by large corporations, again in secrecy and anonymity. The treaty is also in danger of being enforced by (secretive) courts which are not accountable to individual countries. This treaty therefore risks being anti-democratic and effectively will hand over a considerable degree of sovereignty and control. One specific area that has been highlighted is loss of control of NHS privatization but the treaty effectively embraces all goods and services that are not specifically exempted at inception.

Therefore it would seem that leaving the EU could at least avoid getting sucked into TTIP. However, since most Brexit leaders are the self-same neo-liberals who support such arrangements and the UK government has actually been at the forefront of lobbying to keep such things as the secret unelected courts (ISDS) in the treaty, these is no reason to suppose that outside the EU an even less democratic treaty wouldn’t be negotiated, especially as our bargaining position will be that much weaker.

Friends and enemies

Barak Obama, many EU leaders and leaders of other trading partners have urged the UK to remain in the EU. In contrast Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump are hoping for a Brexit. While Brexit campaigners have characteristically dismissed all of this as cynical self-interest it seems plain to me who are friends are and that we should listen to them.  Outside of the information vacuum the Brexiters would have us inhabit (reinforced by the Mail and the Telegraph) most other European countries want to stay, or get in.

Sovereignty

While the UK has to abide by laws it negotiated along with other EU countries it also abides by numerous other rules such as WTO trade rules. Over the years the UK has successfully opted out of or vetoed EU rules it didn’t like. The mere fact that we could leave at any time without penalty should give us confidence that we are in control.

When we leave …

So what will actually happen? It’s clear the Brexiters have no idea. A stock market crash seems certain and possibly a run on the pound. Large companies will put their contingency plans into operation, possibly with a move to another EU country and investment will dry up. Political instability also seems likely for a long time with extreme right-wingers holding sway and truth taking a back seat.